Confusion reigns as Spanier cancels Paterno's press conference (posted 11.8.11)

Confusion reigns in Unhappy Valley
PSU president Graham Spanier cancels Joe Paterno's scheduled press conference today


This post was supposed to be about Joe Paterno's previously scheduled press conference today. About how he faced the national media, about what he said, etc.

It was going to be the next phase in this ongoing disaster. But it took the disaster to new levels.

Less than an hour until start time, PSU president Graham Spanier canceled Paterno's press conference. Reportedly he didn't tell Paterno, and he gave no reason.

There is only one acceptable reason at this hour, at this time, and in these extraordinary circumstances for Spanier to cancel: Because he's going to hold a press conference himself.

Except there has been no such announcement. In fact, Spanier - the heretofore media-friendly Penn State president - has only been heard from once the past few days, indirectly, when he released a statement Saturday offering his unconditional support for the accused perjurers, Tim Curley and Gary Schultz, who have since left their jobs.

Apparently some media reached Paterno today, because he expressed disillusionment and disappointment at the cancellation. According to ESPN, Paterno allegedly had a statement planned, and was going to field questions at the press conference.

Was Spanier afraid of what Paterno might say? Did he demand to see JoePa's statement first, and was rebuffed? Did he feel as if PSU wasn't equipped to handle this sudden onslaught of media. (If so, he needed to say so). Did he think it was unfair for Paterno to have to stand up and represent the university before the national media throng, when he should be doing so? Is this the first real sign that Paterno will be removed as coach soon?

Penn State football legend Matt Millen, speaking on ESPN a short time ago, said Paterno would be determined to explain himself, explain his side of the story and express his feelings about it all. And that the University must not want him speaking at this time, in effect representing the school. So they muzzled him.

Joe Paterno is a strong, towering figure, though not as much as he used to be, mainly because of his age. There's simply no way the 84-year-old Paterno of today wields the same clout, same influence, same power, he did 10-20-30 years ago.

He carries the highest profile at PSU, by far, of course. But he is not the most powerful person on campus, and he of course does not have ultimate authority. Spanier reinforced that a short time ago by canceling the press conference.

But where is Spanier? Why is he not out front? If he won't take the lead, then perhaps the PSU Board of Trustees needs to appoint someone who does. Soon.

On ESPN right now, Matt Millen is in tears.

What will Joe Paterno tell the Penn State players about the Sandusky scandal? (posted 11.7.11)

What will Joe Paterno tell his team about the Sandusky scandal?
The coach must address the issue with the team and provide an explanation - and that's just the beginning as he faces the biggest challenge of his astounding career


About 31,000 times Joe Paterno has awakened in the morning. Today was one of the toughest.

Then again, did he sleep last night? At all this weekend?

After nearly 85 years on this earth, Paterno's life will never be the same, thanks to Jerry Sandusky's alleged heinous acts.

He arose to the news that longtime PSU AD Tim Curley and VP of business and finance Gary Schultz have stepped down (Curley on leave, Schultz retired), after being charged with perjury in the child sex scandal case against Sandusky, a longtime PSU assistant coach who retired in 1999.

The national media have convened on Penn State for live reports.

The Board of Trustees held an emergency meeting Sunday, after which Curley and Schultz - both longtime PSU administrators - stepped down. But the BOT made a point of saying that neither Paterno's nor PSU president Graham Spanier's resignation were discussed.

Both have a long way to go, however. While the media primarily is focused on asking what Paterno knew and what he did or didn't do (simply because he is Joe Paterno), equally as important if underreported is what Spanier knew and did.

Some information about the infamous 2002 allegation against Sandusky reached Spanier, through Curley and Schultz, according the the grand jury report. It is the job of administrators to act accordingly to such information. Obviously the grand jury felt it was Curley and Schultz who shirked that duty. But the BOT certainly will convene again, and ultimately could think Spanier failed to act properly. Spanier wasn't charged, but he might be fired.

Paterno, too. It's possible. PSU will be investigating this debacle. Schultz, and maybe Curley, probably won't be the only casualties.

So there are a great many things Paterno will be dealing with now besides his actual head coaching duties, which has been his job for 46 years, and for which he is considered one of the best of all time, and most revered. These final three games, of what had been a successful season and now will only be known as the season during which "It" happened, will be the longest three weeks of his career.

Paterno might be wrestling with his conscience. He might be anxiously sorting through his memory bank. He might be exhausted from the stress and strain. (It is not inconceivable that this will wear on Paterno to such an extent that he's forced to resign for health reasons). He might be very, very angry. He might be despondent and demoralized. He might be wondering what else will come out: Will there be more accusations against Sandusky?

Will Paterno bear the brunt of all of this, despite the grand jury lauding his actions, simply because he's Joe Paterno and should have been able to stop it?

Yesterday, Paterno released a statement. Today he must address his team.

Obviously the PSU players have been taking this all in with a mixture of confusion and anger and a million other feelings.

Paterno, obviously, owes the team a thorough explanation. His decorated life has been devoted to Penn State football players. Literally thousands of them. And their families. Year after year, season after season, generation after generation. Paterno has molded Penn State football players from boys into men, from high school stars into accomplished collegians. His reputation for doing so is as exceptional as any, ever.

These young men will look at him today and wonder: What the hell is going on?

Paterno has been in physical decline. RFBS thought almost certainly this would be his last season even before the scandal broke. It will be an old man who today stands before about 100 players, plus the assistant coaches - many who worked with Sandusky years ago - and perhaps other staff, in a large, silent room. He will start talking. For a long time.

Will he talk about the Jerry Sandusky he knew 30, 40 years ago? For many of the players, Jerry Sandusky is merely a name somehow connected to the football program from the distant past. Will he recount his grand jury testimony and everything he knows? Will he take the team through a timeline of events in this saga? Will he talk about adversity? Will he talk about right and wrong and personal choices? Will he talk about abuse of children, about protocol, about the law, about justice? About family? About focusing on your responsibilities? Will he talk about football? Will he make analogies? Will he try to rally and inspire? Will he be somber throughout?

And, when he is finished, what will be the mindset of his players?

This is one of many big steps for Paterno in the coming days. While the media (as is their nature in anything of this sort) may be highly skeptical of his clearance after the nearly three-year investigation by the grand jury, the media actually is a peripheral player to Paterno right now. Others take a higher place in line: family, associates, confidants, players, former players, assistant coaches, brethren in the coaching community, students, faculty, Board members and hundreds of thousands of Penn State fans and alumni. That's Paterno's court of public opinion, in nutshell.

But it starts somewhere. Yesterday, with the statement. Today, with his team.

If his conscience is clean and his health allows and if he is determined to maintain his reputation, if he knows he's worked too hard for too long and done too much the right way for it all to end so horribly, catastrophically wrong because of these allegations, then this is the process Paterno must go through. His age be damned.

He might fail regardless. As more information comes forth, widespread sentiment could turn against him, rightly or wrongly - this may or may not end fairly for him. The Board could force him to resign, or fire him. He might not even finish out the season. His health could make the decision for him.

Or things could turn in his favor as more information is unveiled - Paterno a victim of Sandusky's wicked, compulsive mental illness, and of Curley and Schultz's gross, irresponsible mismanagement, and of the carelessness of others? It could happen. Time will tell.

Right now, today, it's about the 100 or so young men he is supposed to be leading into the final three critical games of the season. That he's supposed to be leading through the final formative years of their lives.

JoePa will start talking.

Saturday is Senior Day.


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Penn State fandom in the post-Sandusky sex scandal era: It's complicated (posted 11.7.11)

Penn State fandom in the post-Sandusky sex scandal era: It's complicated
For PSU fans, especially the over-40 set, this could shake their long-held belief in Penn State football for a very long time

The Jerry Sandusky sex-abuse scandal and related carnage - Penn State AD Tim Curley (leave) and VP of business and finance Gary Schultz (retired), both charged of perjury, stepped down in the last 24 hours - is a bellwether event in the history of Penn State football.

Perhaps the bellwether event. Sandusky was an icon, albeit from another era. He was directly connected to the Penn State icon, Joe Paterno, for decades. Sexually abusing children is as heinous as it gets. Major national media outlets are leading broadcasts with the scandal. It is huge, it is very bad and it is extraordinarily sad.

(Make no mistake, the alleged victims are the ones for whom this is the most terrible. However, this blog is about Penn State football.)

PSU football has a massive support base. On volume alone, the size, passion and commitment of the fan base is among the Top 10 in all of college football. In the same breath with Texas, Ohio State, Alabama, Michigan, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Nebraska. The cream of the crop.

Yet it also has had a unique culture among the superpower football programs. At the heart of that fan base has been more than just unbridled support for the alma mater's football team and a desire to tailgate on Saturdays.

It has been about supporting success on the field, and supporting class and dignity and scholarship off of it. It has been about family and friends and school, about generations and traditions, and a whole lot of things that make us feel good about our lives.

At the core of all of that is the 84-year-old Paterno, and everything he has represented for an unheard-of 46 years as head coach: Success with Honor.

PSU proudly wore the badge of being one of only two BCS schools (Stanford) never to have incurred a significant NCAA infraction. Players graduated at a higher rate than almost all other schools. (Look it up, it's true, and has been for a very long time.) More Academic All-Americans than other schools (look that up, too). Lots of former players in the NFL, lots of former players very successful in all walks of life. Incredible stories of courage (Adam Taliaferro) and humanity (John Cappelletti).

Paterno has made enormous, generous donations to the school. Yet his salary is far less than market value. A PSU library is named after him. His assistant coaches stay on for years, decades. He takes all the heat for any failings on the field. He's the winningest coach of all-time, yet amazingly he got there by doing it the right way in an era when program after program has been caught cheating or scandalized in some form or another, and head coaches come and go like a carousel.

PSU never took shortcuts. It rarely recruited junior college players. It held relatively high standards of admission, it cut loose players who weren't adhering to their responsibilities, and others have found themselves in JoePa's proverbial doghouse for months for seemingly small transgressions. Almost all of them, years later, end up saying maybe they didn't like Paterno when they were playing, but he ended up being one of the best things that ever happened to them.

It's all part of the tapestry of Penn State football. All part of what made being a Penn State fan feel extra special.

There have been embarrassing hiccups, for sure, most notably in player comportment off the field - alcohol abuse, brawls, marijuana usage. And in 2003-04 the team really struggled on the field.

By and large, however, it has been as good as any fan could have asked for (frustrations with the conservative offense aside.) All of JoePa's coaching records have been great, but all they really did was reinforce something we already knew: We were part of one of the best things going.

This - the Sandusky sex scandal - shakes all of that to its core like a 7.9 on the Richter scale

The New York Times had Jayson Blair. Wall Street had Bernie Madoff. The Soviet Union had Chernobyl. Once upon a time, Pennsylvania had Three Mile Island.

And now Penn State football has Jerry Sandusky. And possibly others who may have irresponsibly abetted him.

All fans - all people - of course are horrifyingly appalled by Sandusky's alleged acts. But once the cleanup takes place - as long as those who broke the law or acted wrongly are held to accountability - younger PSU fans likely will be quicker to move on.

Those in their 30s and younger are products of the fast-paced Internet/social media age, so they don't fasten onto things for long, and they never really knew Sandusky. Some students at PSU may never have heard of Sandusky until Friday evening when the news broke. He's a guy who retired a long time ago, when they were in elementary school. Things happen quickly in the modern world. The next big scandal is on the clock, ready to strike.

Much of the outside world - i.e non-Penn State football fans - will feel the same way. They'll be mortified by the accusations, they'll want hear about accountability, and then, eventually, they will move on. Baylor men's basketball recovered from the murder of one player by another, and a cover-up by the head coach.

PSU football is not Baylor basketball, though. Older PSU football fans - perhaps those who's initiation and love of the Nittany Lions developed pre-1990s, back when Paterno, with Sandusky at his side, were forging a national powerhouse  - many of them won't soon feel the same about things. If ever.

Mainly, it's the alleged abhorrent betrayal of trust by Sandusky. He was a revered coach. He worked with Nittany Lion legends. He was behind many great defenses. He established a fabulous children's charity that reached every corner of the state.

Jerry Sandusky was someone you could believe in. Legions of older fans did.

Then, there's Paterno. Not everyone inside PSU fandom loves Paterno. Some think he's sanctimonious, some think his ego is too big and he should have retired years ago, some simply don't like the way he manages the team on game days. But most have held to the tenet, for decades, that JoePa is Penn State football, and they love Penn State football.

Right now, that subset of PSU fandom is embarking on a most uncomfortable holding pattern. Will more information come forth about Paterno's role in all of this? Should he have done more? Did he do more? Yes, the grand jury has lauded him for acting appropriately. He followed protocol. He did what he was supposed to do. But of course there is more to the story. What will that be?

No one ever would have doubted how Joe Paterno would have handled any situation. But if Jerry Sandusky can allegedly sexually abuse children, then anyone can have at least a minor chink in their armor. Even JoePa. So the old guard waits nervously.

The young guard of PSU fans is appalled and aghast, too. But in relatively short time they will embrace the next generation of Penn State football.

For the old guard, it's just not as simple. Part of their core has been ripped from them. They're scared it might get worse. Or that they might never recover from it.

Let's make a couple of things clear. First, this isn't comparable in any way to anything relating to NCAA infractions, cheating, paying players, skirting the rules, etc. This is about a man who allegedly violated the decency and human rights of children, and possibly about others who may have irresponsibly abetted him.

Second, let's be clear when evaluating the role of Paterno in this mess: It is administrators who are supposed to deal with things like this. As a former school administrator, the job title might as well be "constantly deals with all the crap, so that the teachers and coaches can go about the business of doing their jobs properly without having to worry about all the crap.''

In schools, administrators do many things, and right at the top of the list, for lack of a better term, is "crap handlers." Tim Curley didn't just hire/fire/evaluate/mentor coaches, make suggestions for program and facility development and rake in the accolades for the incredible success of the athletic empire he oversaw. He dealt with all the crap. And at a school and athletic program as massive as Penn State's - with so many coaches, so many athletes (and parents of athletes), so many facilities, so many boosters, so many events, so many alumni, so much money flowing through - there most assuredly was a lot of crap.

What sort of crap? Things such as a former coach at the school, who a few years later still had access to campus facilities because of his charitable organization, sexually abusing a child in an athletic facility, according to a witness. That's as vile a pile of crap as it gets, and it falls squarely on Curley, and on campus police, to deal with it. And according to the grand jury, Curley and Schultz, who oversaw campus police, failed to properly do so.

That said, could Paterno have done more? The columnists and writers who already didn't like him or wanted him to retire long ago will weigh in harshly against Paterno or have done so already, as will those who haven't fully looked at the grand jury report, as will those who simply choose to ignore what the grand jury said in order to say whatever it is they want to say, as will those who don't understand school structure, the role of administrators, the importance of following protocol and the delineation between coaches/faculty and administrators.

Or those who simply look for the easy, name-brand target and take aim. Simply put, saying Paterno should be blamed and fired, and perhaps tarred and feathered, generates the most page views and most headlines. So it will be out there, a lot.

This situation is a lot more nuanced than that. There is much more to this story that we don't know, of course - much we don't know about what Paterno knew, or what he might have done, or what he didn't do. The gut feeling here is The Second Mile, Sandusky's children's charity, will play a much bigger role in news stories about this saga moving forward. Why? Because The Second Mile is where Sandusky, over a period of many years, gained access to all of the children he allegedly sexually assaulted, eight children in all, two of them over a period of several years. That is the genesis of this story. (The Second Mile releases a statement: http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2011/11/the_second_mile_releases_a_sta.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter)

Yet we are bound to learn more about Paterno's place in all of this, but how much more? And how will it make us feel about Paterno?

For tens of thousands of PSU football supporters, somewhere in that answer is our core. Penn State football always was something worth believing in, something worth supporting.

It was a whole heck of a lot more than just rooting for the guys in the blue jerseys to beat the guys in the other jerseys on Saturday afternoons.

It's going to be awkward and uncomfortable for the rest of this season, as we process it all.

In a few months, how will we feel? What about a few years?

Being a Penn State fan suddenly is extremely complicated.


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The Sandusky stain won't go away for Penn State (posted 11.6.11)

The ugly stain that won't go away anytime soon for Penn State 
Jerry Sandusky's alleged acts of sexual abuse will resonate in Happy Valley for years and tar those associated with him


Right now "It" feels like a Mike Tyson punch to the gut.

In a few weeks "It" will be that gnawing, uncomfortable feeling that something is wrong, something is amiss in your life.

And for years down the road "It" will be that little sliver of doubt, that smidgen of skepticism, that restraint on your beliefs, that you had never carried with you before "It" happened.

Ultimately, "It" will be a long-lasting stain on Penn State, and a lingering bruise on Penn State football.

"It," dive-bombed into Beaver Stadium this weekend. "It" is what iconic former Penn State defensive coordinator Jerry Sandusky is alleged to have done. "It" will be featured on national newscasts for days to come, and will recur in the news as the case against Sandusky, and two PSU administrators accused of perjury, moves along:

Sexual abuse of young teenage boys.

It is an extremely uncomfortable thing to say, or type, much less to imagine, much less to imagine being perpetrated by Jerry Sandusky, as authorities allege. Multiple times with multiple boys from 1994 through 2009, 40 counts.

The same Jerry Sandusky who 34 years ago founded what has become one of Pennsylvania's great children's charities, The Second Mile.

The same Jerry Sandusky who coached all of the Penn State defensive greats from 1977-99.

"It" is simply incomprehensible.

The cognitive dissonance is staggering. He did what? What?? To how many? For how long? Some of them on campus? He met his victims through his children's charity?  Oh. My. God.

(Here's a link to an updated version of the story: http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/7199068/penn-state-nittany-lions-bar-accused-ex-coach-jerry-sandusky-campus)

This has been brewing for awhile. Penn State football followers have lived in fear of this day, even if they didn't spend much time thinking about it since it was happening in secrecy. A couple of years ago the news first broke, relatively quietly, that a grand jury was investigating some sort of sexual allegation against Sandusky involving a teenager. It was a sinking, sickening, albeit fleeting feeling.

RFBS hadn't really thought of Sandusky in years. Hopefully, it was all a misunderstanding. Hopefully we'd hear about it just one more time, briefly, in a news roundup: Sandusky cleared. End of story. Life goes on.

Instead, life slammed the brakes this weekend. The news has rocked Penn Staters in every corner of the globe. More allegations had surfaced during the investigation, and the Pennsylvania state attorney general filed charges against Sandusky, 40 counts in all. Also: two PSU administrators, AD Tim Curley and VP of finance and business Gary Schultz, are being charged with perjury.

(PSU president Graham Spanier has stated his unequivocal support for Curley and Schultz; Sandusky has not been a PSU employee for nearly 12 years. All maintain their innocence. Here's the link to a story about Curley: http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/sports/college/s_765877.html, and here's one about Schultz: http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/regional/s_765876.html)

Where to begin asking questions? Where to begin when assessing the carnage?

• There are the alleged victims of these horrifying acts, these violations of the human code. All were children, mostly young teens, when the alleged acts occurred. They are first and foremost the most damaged, if the allegations are true.
• There is the far-reaching, exceptional charity Sandusky founded in 1977, The Second Mile, which helps thousands of kids throughout Pennsylvania. All of the children (many are now adults) named in the grand jury investigation first encountered Sandusky through the charity. The Second Mile and Sandusky apparently have continued to utilize PSU facilities since Sandusky's retirement from coaching. The charity has distanced itself from Sandusky in recent years. Will all of its good deeds be diminished? Will it still be able to help at-risk youth in the state? 
• There is Sandusky's family, notably his sons who work in football - Jon is the Director of Player Personnel with the Cleveland Browns, E.J. is an assistant coach with West Chester University.
• There are his legions of former players, hundreds if not thousands he has mentored, and those close to him. You think you know someone for decades, and then you find out he might be a child sex abuser. There's no processing that in a weekend. 

As untouched by all of this as is possible, at this point, is Joe Paterno. But this is much too disturbing, much too big, to leave anyone associated with Sandusky for so long unharmed.

People will wonder what Paterno knew, when he know it, and what he did about it. The grand jury concluded Paterno acted appropriately in forwarding information to his superiors in 2002, and in dealing with the grand jury. But he's Joe Paterno, so this will land at his feet.

People also will wonder why Sandusky still was allowed near children, and why he was allowed access to places on campus, even though sexual misconduct allegations had been made against him years ago. (Story about Sandusky not being prosecuted in 1998: http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2011/11/former_centre_county_da_ray_g.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter)

Dozens of thoughts and questions - some much more important than others - clutter this tragedy:
How will this impact the remainder of the football season? The future of the program? Paterno's future? Paterno's reputation and legacy? Recruiting? The search for a successor to Paterno? Applications to the school? Penn State's reputation? Donations to the school? Donations to the football program? How long will the legal process go on? What else will come out if the case goes to trial? Will Curley and/or Schultz, lose their jobs? Could they end up in jail? Could Spanier and/or Paterno lose their jobs? Will Paterno be called to testify? What role will the Board of Trustees take in handling all of this? What other information will be revealed in the coming weeks and months? Will there be more accusations, more sordid details?

It all remains to be seen. Many chapters remain in this sorrowful saga. The legal process has to play itself out. It could get better or worse, but even the best-case scenario from here on out will leave a wake of destruction.

At the least, we know the following, and none of it is goes down well: Nothing will ever quite be the same with Penn State and the football program, because of the alleged acts of Jerry Sandusky. Many children may have been sexually abused. The university and the beloved football program are tarnished. Many high-ranking people at PSU could lose their jobs and/or be convicted of perjury. And, perhaps, Sandusky could have been stopped from being near children sooner.

In the weeks, months and years to follow, the stain of these allegations will linger. It will stain Paterno, stain the football program and stain the university.

It may be 12 years since Sandusky coached the Lions, but his impact has never been greater, for all the wrong reasons.

A former major college football defensive coordinator who has dedicated his life to a children's charity is high the list of people seemingly above reproach.

Seemingly.


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Ending the JoePa Era in 2011, Part IV: Happy (Valley) Endings? (posted 11.3.11)

Ending the JoePa Era in 2011, Part IV: Options for a Happy Ending?
When PSU president Graham Spanier and AD Tim Curley approach Joe Paterno after the season, the options presented must have finite dates for the conclusion of his epic career. But JoePa likely won't choose his best option.

• (Part I of this series, posted 9.20.11, explained why this should be Joe Paterno's last season, and how Spanier and Curley should arrange for the end of the Paterno Era immediately after the regular season.)
• (Part II, posted 10.10.11, looked at what PSU football would be like under Urban Meyer.)
• (Part III, posted 10.27.11, asserted that the next PSU coach probably is a college coach at another school right now, and detailed the Top 10 possible JoePa successors.)

Joe Paterno's singular status as the greatest of all time (step aside, Muhammad Ali) makes it imperative that Penn State handle the conclusion of his career as gracefully as possible, with the respect and fanfare Paterno's unsurpassed legacy deserves.

But time is running out for a graceful exit. Paterno turns 85 at the end of this season. He is breaking down physically. He has barely been on the sideline this season, instead sitting high up in the coaches booth due to a lingering injury.

It is time for the Paterno Era to end, for the benefit of all. Physically, he can't do it anymore, and it will just get worse. It's not practical for him to continue.

But JoePa has never given any indication he is ready to call it quits. And thus he is making this whole Happy Ending in Happy Valley thing a little testy.

In a perfect world, PSU president Graham Spanier and AD Tim Curley meet with Paterno right after the regular season and lay out the gameplan: Joe, they'll say, next season is your last. It ends in 2012. And it will be spectacular.

No, they'll say, we can't get Russell Wilson to sign a one-year contract with PSU. But each home game will be a special celebration. One will bring back the national championship teams. Another will highlight the undefeated seasons. Yet another will focus on all of the Academic All-Americans. And so on. The road games will feature retirement gifts, kind words and special moments. It will be a 12-game victory parade, they'll say.

It all will be in honor of Paterno. But really it will be for us, and for the players, and for everyone he has influenced in his Titanic career.

But it probably won't happen.

What's preventing such an ideal sendoff? Two things:

1. According to Spanier, Paterno has shown no inclination to do such a thing.
2. Unless someone inside the program is named the next coach - Tom Bradley clearly is the most viable candidate on the staff, but there have been no indications he will be chosen - it leaves the question of who will succeed Paterno up in the air. Which would turn into a mess as the 2012 season went along. The entire coaching staff would be wondering about its future, with an eye on their next job. The media speculation would be a quagmire.

Re: No. 1, after speaking at a PSU alumni event in Florida this past spring/summer, Spanier was asked about Paterno. He specifically was asked about announcing a retirement date for Paterno, perhaps 9-10 months in advance, and turning the season into a JoePa Jamboree - just as was suggested above.

Spanier's reply? Paterno wouldn't go for it. The implication was clear: Don't you think we've tried that? Paterno has been asked to do this before, perhaps again recently, and he always has declined.

Re: No. 2, the successor speculation - given months to incubate - would threaten to swallow the season. The media would hover like the Great Ghost of the 2003-04 Seasons. And if Bradley isn't named next coach with a clear-cut date of power transfer, then PSU's coaching staff would become dysfunctional in 2012. Also you can't name someone not on staff as successor 10 months down the road. For example, PSU can't announce in February "This is JoePa's last season, and current Miami coach Al Golden will be our head coach for 2013." It doesn't work that way. (Unless Golden resigns as Miami coach and becomes JoePa's Associate Head Coach for 2012, but that seems implausible, right?)

JoePa's stubbornness means Spanier/Curley must do two things: First, bring those closest to Paterno into the process of ending his career - such as his wife Sue, and perhaps son/assistant coach Jay, and PSU icon/longtime Board of Trustees member Jesse Arnelle - to help them help JoePa reach the unavoidable conclusion: The end is near, and it must be specifically planned for, very soon.

Second, they must approach Paterno right after the regular season - along with the aforementioned close Paterno confidants - and tell JoePa that since he has declined to accept the season-long celebration ending his career in 2012, then this is it: the 2011 season and upcoming bowl game will be his last.

Faced with those choices, Paterno possibly could change his mind and accept the 2012 victory lap, which would properly honor JoePa but make finding the successor complicated and likely lead to the previously discussed staff dysfunction. Or, if Paterno chooses Option 2, Spanier and Curley could begin their search for a successor immediately upon announcing JoePa's retirement. About 10-14 days later, PSU likely would have its next coach.

Then, December 2011 would be about celebrating two icons, Santa Claus and JoePa. The bowl game would be dedicated to one thing: Joe Paterno.

Really, there can be no other choices. Time catches up with everyone, even the greatest of the great.

That said, this needs to be different than the Bobby Bowden-Florida State debacle after the 2009 season. In 2007, FSU established a concrete transition-of-power date. A coach-in-waiting, offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher, was announced, and the transition was contractually established to be shortly after the 2010 season bowl game. Then FSU reneged on the deal and yanked the rug out from Bowden a little more than year early. The celebrations for Bowden were minimal and uncomfortable because he had been forced to resign a year early despite 28 straight bowl appearances and the incredible impact he'd had on FSU football. It was shameful.

Also, this is much different than 2004, when reportedly Spanier and Curley tried to get Paterno to resign because of disgruntled boosters and a bad Nittany Lions team in 2003-04 (combined 7-16 record). That was wrong. After all, Paterno was one of the winningest coaches in history (second only to Bowden among major college coaches at that moment) and had meant more financially to PSU than all of the disgruntled boosters combined, in addition to his sterling reputation and all he had done for the school, the program and the sport. He was turning 78 but was in good health. He certainly had earned the opportunity to turn things around, and to retire with the program doing well.

Which, amazingly, he has done. PSU is 66-20 since then.

Except he won't retire.

This time, though, the reasons are different than in 2004. He is being asked to retire simply because it is time.

Spanier and Curley apparently didn't have the support to force JoePa's resignation in 2004 (thankfully), but who would oppose them now? Few can possibly think an 85-year-old in declining health - there is a visible, tangible difference in his physical state between 2004 and 2011 - can perform the duties necessary to coach a major college football team. And this time he would be going out after a good season.

Spanier and Curley need to do the right thing for all involved and make it happen after this season, and make it happen the best way possible.

Good luck, gentlemen. Everyone affiliated with Penn State and the college football universe is watching.


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A November gauntlet to remember ... or forget? (posted 11.2.11)

Penn State's November gauntlet to remember ... or forget?
Following the bye this week, PSU faces a brutal three-game stretch that will test the Lions as much as any in memory and determine the fate of the season. Most college football fans are expecting a collapse. How can PSU surprise them?

Quick quiz, choose one of the following:

1. Penn State is on track for a berth in the Big Ten title game and possibly a BCS berth.
2. Penn State is on track for an 8-4 season and middling bowl berth.

Both are plausible outcomes, eh? That's because despite a 5-0 Big Ten record (8-1 overall) and 2.5-game lead in its division, the Lions are facing these final three games:

• Nov. 12 - No. 9-ranked Nebraska in Happy Valley
• Nov. 19 - Rapidly improving Ohio State in Columbus
• Nov. 26 - Big Ten favorite Wisconsin in Madison

With Penn State's epically bad offense, the Nebraska-OSU-Wisconsin triumvirate looks very imposing. Like, scaling-Everest-in-a-blizzard imposing.

Nebraska and Ohio State are tough, tested and peaking. Wisconsin is well-balanced, complete and primed to bounce back. All three are rough-and-tumble, ready-made for November football in the Big Ten.

The Lions can find a way to squeak one out, right? Or is a 0-3 sweep likely?

Perhaps. But the optimist in RFBS is busting out a scenario by which Penn State launches itself into the inaugural Big Ten title game - by laying waste to the November gauntlet.

Here's how:

GAME 1: Nebraska at PSU (projected point spread, Pick 'em)

1. The Bye Boost - The rest and rejuvenation will help Penn State, along with the time to recuperate from injuries (more on that below). Importantly, it will allow extra preparation time for the offensive and defensive coordinators, which should give the Lions an advantage early in this game. DC Tom Bradley with two weeks to prep should stymie the Cornhuskers.
2. Home Field - Typically worth a few points. The home team is 9-3 in this series, and PSU is 10-1 in its last 11 home finales (the loss was last year to Michigan State).
3. The PSU Offense Can't Do Any Worse. No, Really, It Can't - As good as the Nebraska, OSU and Wisconsin defenses might be, they can't do any better vs. PSU than Illinois, Temple and some others have. Specifically PSU can't do worse at QB and play-calling. The Lions have reached rock-bottom in those areas. So, expect the PSU offense to play a little better vs. Nebraska. Early on, the Lions should have a few wrinkles to help move the ball. By mid-game famed Blackshirts defense will have settled in and start dominating. But by the end the 'Huskers will be worn down a bit, just enough for PSU to control the ball much like it did in the 13-3 home win vs. Iowa on Oct. 8.
4. Injury Recuperation - Invaluable FB Joe Suhey has missed the past two games with a stinger. The other FB, Mike Zordich, is an excellent blocker and effective in short-yardage, but Suhey's superior receiving and rushing skills have been missed. Star WR Derek Moye missed almost all of the past three games with a broken foot. The OL is banged up a bit. All should be healthy and ready to go for Nebraska. Moye especially, but also Suhey, are meaningful upgrades for the offense.
5. Element of Surprise - The PSU offense has been so disparaged and underwhelming that opposing teams are bound to take it lightly. After the Illinois game, Yahoo! Sports' Pat Forde said "this might be the least-explosive 8-1 team in major-conference history." But that was without Moye or Suhey, productive and experienced seniors with NFL aspirations. Plus, RB Silas Redd is excellent and the offensive line is steady and solid. 
6. Reverse Shellshock: After facing Northwestern and dynamic QB Dan Persa this week, going up against Penn State the following week could put the Blackshirts to sleep.

Prediction: Penn State 19, Nebraska 13



GAME 2: PSU at Ohio State (projected point spread, OSU -4)

1. The PSU Offense Can't Do Any Worse ... - See No. 3 above.
2. It's a Trend - The Lions beat 'em in '94, '97, '99, '01, '05 and '08, and are going to beat Ohio State again in '11. It's an every-three-years-or-so thing, and PSU is due.
3. Overconfidence - OSU has been on the upswing, beating then-unbeaten Illinois and previously almighty Wisconsin its past two games. That should continue the next two weeks against Indiana and Purdue. The Buckeyes are getting good players back from suspension seemingly every week and putting the three early season losses far behind them. And they clobbered PSU in the second half in Columbus last season. By the time this game kicks off, OSU will have gone from smug to humbled back to smug in a span of 10 weeks. They might be feeling a little too good about themselves, too suddenly.
4. Nebraska Lite - The Ohio State attack this season with true freshman QB Braxton Miller is a lot like Nebraska's: Centered around a running quarterback (Miller/Taylor Martinez), a pounding running back (Dan Herron/Rex Burkhead) and occasional passes downfield to try to keep the secondary honest. Except it's not quite as effective. A week after slowing Nebraska, PSU will do the same to OSU.

Prediction: Penn State 15, Ohio State 13



GAME 3: PSU at Wisconsin (projected point spread, Wisconsin -8.5)

1. Psychology - If PSU has clinched the Leaders Division heading into Madison, it will provide a healthy psychological edge. Wisconsin will be frustrated and demoralized - after all, the Badgers were in the national title chase until recently. (And on the flip side, if Wisconsin, after dropping two straight in midseason to fall 2.5 games behind PSU, is in position to capture the division title with a win over PSU, then the psychological advantage reverts back to the Badgers.) Assuming PSU has clinched by then, the Lions ride into Madison with a loose swagger, while the Badgers will be aggravated and sloppy. 
2. Psychology, II - Wisconsin has played only two close games this season. It lost both. Every game PSU plays is close and the Lions have won them all. If PSU can prevent the Badgers from running away with it, advantage Lions.
3. Recent History - For all the talk about how Wisconsin is the "It" program of the Big Ten these days - an ESPN.com story recently rated them ahead of Ohio State as a football program now and moving forward the next several years - PSU crushed the Badgers the last two meetings by an average score of 43-7. While that could give Wisconsin the revenge angle, the games were played in 2007-08, so few Badgers players are still around seeking revenge. But for PSU, those results - especially the 48-7 nighttime thrashing on the road in 2008 - demonstrate the Lions can get it done in Madison.
4. The Bielema Factor - There's just something a little smarmy about the Wisconsin coach. A little disingenuous. A little too ubiquitous with the media. His face is everywhere on ESPNU and the Big Ten Network. He punctuates every conversation with "On Wisconsin" like a rookie Badgers cheerleader. He tweets more than Jay Paterno. He blatantly ran up the score multiple times last season. He skirts the ethical line on many issues, including bringing in rent-a-star QB Russell Wilson for four months this fall, recently pilfering an OL recruit commitment from PSU, and running the entire kickoff coverage unit offside vs. PSU in 2006 to flout the rules and exploit a loophole. RFBS took issue with Bielema a couple of weeks ago, said his Karma count was running in the negative, and look what happened? Two straight heart-breaking defeats for the Badgers. Perhaps he's due one more this season.

Prediction: ???? - ... this game is too far away to make a reasonable prediction.

Most importantly for Penn State, in all three of these games the Lions will have the best defense on the field. A smidge better than Nebraska and Ohio State, and a little better Wisconsin. November football in the Big Ten is about defense first, then such things as turnover margin, running game, field position and field goal kicker. The Lions should match up well in those categories.

Of course, by the time these games are played much could change. Weather, injuries, upsets, happenstance all could affect the teams coming in, and impact the outcome on game day.

Can PSU really run the table? Well, yes, but RFBS isn't betting on it. The Lions could be an underdog in all three games, almost certainly at Ohio State and Wisconsin.

But if somehow it does happen, this is the blueprint.


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Second Trimester Report: PSU football assessment before the November gauntlet (posted 11.1.11)

Second Trimester Report: PSU football assessment before the November gauntlet
At the 2/3rds checkpoint of the season, we check in on the Lions 


RFBS is not that mathematically challenged: PSU is 75% of the way through its season, not 66.7% as the headline suggests.

But this season naturally divides into three slightly uneven sections:
(1) the four-game non-conference schedule
(2) the first five Big Ten games, all in October, and
(3) the riveting finishing kick in November (following a bye), against Nebraska, Ohio State and Wisconsin.

Isolating that second trimester, those five games - all played in the Big Ten, all wins, all squeakers, all detrimental to the blood pressure of PSU fans, all defense, no passing - yields some confounding, contrasting, mystifying, verifying, etc., factoids about 8-1 Penn State, and about some of the individual standouts for the Lions this season.

(All stats/rankings for Big Ten games only unless otherwise noted):

AMAZING: PSU is the first team in the ancient history of the Big Ten to win five straight league games all by 10 points or less. They have a decent chance to make it six in two weeks (after the bye) vs. Nebraska.


CONFOUNDING: PSU's putrid offense is tied for best in the Big Ten in 4th-down conversions at 80% (4-of-5). In other words, without that misguided QB sneak vs. Illinois, Penn State would be alone as the best team in the Big Ten in 4th-down conversion rate at 100%.

OVERPOWERING: Three Lions are in the Top 8 in tackles for loss in Big Ten games - Devon Still (10), Gerald Hodges (7.5) and Jordan Hill (6).

OVERPOWERING, II: Four Lions are in the Top 8 in sacks in Big Ten games - Hodges (3.5), Still (3), Sean Stanley (3) and Hill (3).

CONFIRMATION: In its five Big Ten games, PSU has played two of the three worst scoring defenses in the league, Northwestern and Indiana. Yet the Lions still rank second-to-last in scoring with 19.6 points per game.

SPECIAL TEAMS: How vital is the kicking game? Penn State has punted the ball into the end zone more than twice as many times as the next worst team (seven for PSU, three for the next worst) in Big Ten games. Also, PSU has 11 FGs in Big Ten games, with only Nebraska having half as many (6), and everyone else having five or fewer.

TELLTALE: The PSU D has allowed three rushing TDs in Big Ten play which is best in the league, and the 121 yards rushing per game allowed is second-best.

SUPERLATIVE: PSU's nine interceptions in Big Ten games ranks first, and their 14 interceptions overall are sixth nationally.

AWESOME: The past two games, Hodges has amassed 33 tackles and 2.5 sacks to earn back-to-back Big Ten defensive player of the week honors. Since the loss of star LB Michael Mauti for the season to a knee injury in the fourth game, Hodges, a junior, has emerged as an All-Big Ten linebacker.

MR. OCTOBER: PSU squeezed in the maximum five games in October, and RB Silas Redd took advantage, leading the nation in total rushing yards for the month with 703. However, Redd was second in the Big Ten in rushing yards per game last month with 140.6, behind Iowa's Marcus Coker (147.2), who played one fewer game. Overall Redd is sixth nationally with 1,006 rushing yards. It's the 21st time a PSU player has rushed for more than 1,000 in a season.

INTERESTING: PSU QBs have been sacked only seven times in five league games, the third-best sack rate in the Big Ten. Which means that at least one aspect of the passing game - pass protection - hasn't been a disaster.

*HMMMM: PSU's opponents have committed fewer penalties (4.3 per game) for fewer yards (37.1 per) than any other Big Ten team's opponents. In other words, whiny Illinois conspiracy theories about the officiating hold no water, because PSU foes are getting flagged at the lowest rate among conference teams. *this stat is for all games played, not just Big Ten games.

HMMMM, II: Michigan, by far, is the recipient of the most penalty yards by its opponent among Big Ten teams. In league games, Michigan's opponents have committed 83.8 penalty yards per game

MYSTERIOUS: The sensational PSU defense is only tied for 9th in the Big Ten in red zone defense at 84.6% in league games.

MYSTERY SOLVED: Of course, red zone defense is a highly flawed statistic. A better stat is Ultimate Red Zone Percentage, RFBS's proprietary red zone data (see the RFBS blog post "Reinventing the Red Zone Metric" on 10.11.11 for an explanation). The URZP for PSU is 67.0%, which leapfrogs the Lions all the way up to a more-appropriate 5th in the league in red zone performance.

LINEBACKER U: LB Nate Stupar is tied for first in Big Ten games with two fumble recoveries, and LB Gerald Hodges is tied for second in forced fumbles with two. Stupar and safety Nick Sukay (an honorary LB) are tied for second in Big Ten play with two interceptions.

IMPRESSIVE: Four PSUers are among the Top 12 in passes defensed in Big Ten play - Sukay with five, and Adrian Amos, Hodges and Stupar with four apiece.

MORE IMPRESSIVE: PSU's pass efficiency defense rating of 97.8 is No. 1 in the Big Ten.

UNIMPRESSED: The voters and computers. The only BCS school with one loss that is ranked lower than 8-1, No. 16 PSU in the BCS standings is unranked, 6-1 Cincinnati, from the on-life support Big East conference.